So how did Trump succeed in getting a deal where Biden failed?

Go to Kosovo today, and among men in their mid-twenties, you will find a disproportionate number of them named Tonibler. It isn’t a traditional Slavic name, but after the vital role that Tony Blair played in prosecuting the war against the Yugoslav leader, Slobodan Milosevic, in 1999, a new generation was called “Tonibler”.

What chance is there that a new generation of children born in Gaza and Israel in the next few months and years will bear that most un-Levantine name, “Donald”?

I can think of one person who would feel the warmest of warm glows if that were to come to pass. And let’s give Donald Trump his due: his unconventional methods of diplomacy, his force of personality, his brow-beating of Bibi Netanyahu have got us to the point where we are today.

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Donald Trump is having a lovely, warm, soapy bath in the narrative that he is the peacemaker and deal-maker extraordinaire. Fair enough; he should be revelling in this moment. But the importance of timing in politics can’t be overestimated. If you look at the deal that Trump has strong-armed Israel into signing up to, it is not so different from the one that Joe Biden put on the table a year ago. Why has Trump succeeded where Biden failed? Yes, his personality. But also timing.

A year ago, Netanyahu thought he didn’t need a deal. But after the haemorrhaging of support following the grotesque attempts to starve the Palestinian people into submission, and then the imbecilic missile attack on the Hamas mission in Qatar, Israel had never looked more isolated. That gave Trump the opening he sought, the leverage only he could apply.

About 15 years ago, I went to Israel to interview Tony Blair, who, as leader of the Middle East Quartet, had been tasked with trying to find peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We travelled around the West Bank together, and he was clear-sighted that a two-state solution was achievable. Everyone knew what the shape of an agreement looked like; the problem was you needed the stars to align, for the two sides to be willing to take a chance, to roll the dice.

Netanyahu nodded about a two-state solution, but then did everything to scupper it. Back when he was president, Bill Clinton thought he had a deal, but then the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, backed away, fearful that he wouldn’t be able to sell it.

Look at Northern Ireland, where Tony Blair succeeded with the Good Friday Agreement. Yes, it was painstaking, yes there were moments when it would seem like there would be failure. And yes, there were issues that were fudged – like the decommissioning of IRA weapons. But there was a will on all sides to give it a go. The constellation of stars was in alignment that Easter.

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That brings us to the other point. The hostages released today is not the end of this; it is just the beginning. The pile of unanswered questions is long. Will Hamas disarm? Will Israel leave the security of the Gaza Strip to this technocratic body? Who is going to appoint these technocrats to run Gaza? How do you keep the militants out? Who is going to pay for the reconstruction? How long will it take and how much will it cost? Remember, the peace plan has 20 points to it.

If you cast your mind back to those historic events in Northern Ireland in 1998, the signing of the Good Friday Agreement was the first step. The Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) would have to become the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), the weapons would have to be decommissioned, and there was the painful process of releasing political prisoners. And then power sharing in Stormont. Today, 27 years on, there are still tensions. But the peace has – largely – held, because the politicians kept working at it.

No one can doubt the force of Trump’s personality and determination to bring this conflict to an end. But there is a question over whether he has the political bandwidth and attention span to continue to make that 20-point plan a reality; to bring the peace for an eternity as he has promised?

The president can zoom in on a subject with enormous intensity – but get bored with it equally quickly. We all feel we have attention deficit disorder with the Trump presidency, as one subject after another gains our undivided attention, only to be replaced by another, hours later.

This is undoubtedly the best chance for peace – and I salute Donald Trump unequivocally for getting this far. But the harder – perhaps less headline-grabbing – grunt work begins now. And Donald Trump, we all know, is an inveterate headline chaser.

I hope I’m wrong. All politicians love to think about legacy. If a durable, just and lasting peace is what Donald Trump bequeaths the world, then give him the Nobel Peace Prize, and make it the biggest, shiniest, most beautiful 24-carat gold medal those Norwegians have ever made. He will have earned it.