Why Sir Keir is safe from the China spy row for now – but Kemi’s in trouble
The PM’s superpower in what looks like an escalating crisis is the public’s apparent indifference, writes John Rentoul – but Badenoch is running out of time to show she can make the people listen
Keir Starmer had an uncomfortable time at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, and the depleted Conservative ranks enjoyed a combative performance by Kemi Badenoch.
They were furious at Lindsay Hoyle, the speaker, for allowing the prime minister to make a short statement about the China spy case before taking questions. It was a transparent attempt to throw the Tory leader off balance by answering all her questions before she asked them, but Badenoch took it in her stride.
Despite Starmer being well prepared, she pushed him onto the defensive – so much so that at one point he stopped and said: “I will double-check this.” That was an unusual admission of uncertainty for a prime minister at the despatch box, but at the end of it, he was still standing.
Starmer is still standing today, after the publication last night of the court documents at the heart of the China spy case, which collapsed last month.
The essence of the allegation made by Badenoch is that the government deliberately undermined the court case because it wanted to promote a positive relationship with China. If she could prove it, it could be the end of Starmer’s premiership. Politicians are not supposed to put pressure on the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to drop charges – as Starmer, himself a former head of the agency, well knows.
What is more, Starmer has denied that this is what happened, so if political interference could be proven, he would risk the same fate as Boris Johnson, found by MPs to have deliberately misled the House of Commons.
According to my sources, however, Starmer is safe for now. I am told that the reason the case against the alleged spies collapsed was nothing to do with political interference – it was a matter of “screw-ups” by officials, mainly in the CPS.
Of course, the complexities of the case are so sprawling that any of its tentacles could still trip the prime minister up. A joint committee of both houses of parliament has today launched an inquiry, which could always turn up new material. But for the moment, Starmer is not in danger.
One of his protections is public indifference. Despite several front-page stories in the newspapers, public opinion remains stubbornly unmoved. One reason for that might be that the charges against Christophers Cash and Berry seem some distance away from any genuine threat to Britain’s national security.
This was confirmed by the witness statement by Matthew Collins, the deputy national security adviser, which was published by No 10 last night. Predicting incorrectly that Tom Tugendhat, a leading critic of China, was going to be promoted to the cabinet, or that Jeremy Hunt would back him in the Tory leadership contest, is not most people’s definition of “spying”.
Yet Badenoch takes it all very seriously and seems to believe that the general public will sit up and take notice if she continues to attack the government. She led the charge in parliament on Monday herself, and after yesterday’s head-to-head confrontation with the prime minister, she seems to be under the impression that one more articulate and indignant onslaught in the Commons could bring him down.
I suspect, though, that this is more to do with the internal politics of the Conservative Party than with any serious threat to Starmer’s position. The ban on a challenge to her leadership will be lifted in two-and-a-half weeks, on 2 November, the anniversary of her election.
She needs to prove her relevance in the one forum where the Tory party still matters: the chamber of the Commons, where it is the second-largest party. (Nigel Farage complained grumpily yesterday that he didn’t see the point of turning up for PMQs – neither he nor any of his four fellow MPs got to ask a question: his only contribution was to mouth, “thank you”, when Starmer condemned the death threats made against him.)
And one of the issues on which Tory MPs have become more strident in recent years is their hostility to China, as the pendulum has swung away from the golden age of engagement under David Cameron and George Osborne.
But the new Tory belligerence towards Beijing is out of line with public opinion. The average voter probably takes the view that Labour’s balancing act is about right, as Collins summed up government policy in his witness statement: “Cooperate where we can, compete where we need to and challenge where we must, including on issues of national security.”