Putin’s rehabilitation is almost complete – he’s busy trying to ‘make Russia great again’

Invading Ukraine was meant to make Vladimir Putin an international pariah, shunned by the civilised world, economically isolated and living in fear of a war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Back in March 2022, Kaja Kallas, then prime minister of Estonia, told European leaders in London that “our goal is the complete isolation of Putin”. Except, instead of isolation, Putin finds himself feted by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and cosying up to India’s prime minister Narendra Modi. Even as Russian rockets continue to rain down on Ukraine’s cities, hardly a week seems to pass without a red carpet being rolled out for Putin.

“How in the hell did Trump so alienate Modi that he’s now attending a summit with autocrats Xi and Putin?” asks an exasperated Michael McFaul, who served as Barack Obama’s ambassador to Moscow. “Just last year, China and India were at war with each other!”

McFaul’s answer to his own question is that “Trump and team are just bad at diplomacy”.

And indeed, the White House’s embrace of sweeping tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy, in defiance of decades of US economic policy, does indeed seem to be driving an ever-closer alliance between China, Russia, Brazil and India.

But another, more compelling explanation is that Putin is a master of the darker arts of international statesmanship. Putin is unfettered by considerations of high principle. He is free from the necessity of having to justify to voters the economic damage he is wreaking on his own country or to defend himself against any opposition.

He doesn’t care about destroying his gas markets in Western Europe, putting thousands of foreign companies to flight, or cutting off Russia from international investments. Instead, he makes alliances where he can get them, from the Taliban in Afghanistan to Iran’s mullahs and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. And when it comes to non-pariah states like China and India, Putin simply makes it worth their while economically to be friends with Moscow.

Take India, whose imports of Russian crude oil have increased fivefold since Russia invaded Ukraine. The reason? Hefty discounts that have saved Indian refiners an estimated $12.6bn and created a whole new industry of refining Russian crude that Western Europe turned away and reselling it back to those self-same Europeans.

China, too, has been boosted by access to discounted Russian oil, and has more than doubled its exports of consumer electronics, cars and other consumer goods to Russia. And in signing a long-mooted deal with Russia’s Gazprom to build the 2,400km-long Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline linking the Arctic Yamal peninsula to Beijing, Xi has scored another major win.

It will be Russia, not China, who will foot the bill for the massive construction costs. Moreover, the price of gas paid by Chinese consumers will be set close to Russia’s own domestic wholesale prices, far below international market rates and a fraction of what European customers used to pay.

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No matter. What Putin cares about is “Making Russia Great Again”, regardless of the cost in blood and treasure. And Putin’s personal standing – as reflected in the pomp and theatre of grand international conferences, military parades, flag-waving schoolgirls at the airport, and warm embraces with world leaders – forms a major part of that greatness.

In addition to Xi and Modi – with whom Putin spent nearly an hour in his Russian-made Auris limousine – Putin has also had meetings with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, and Vietnamese prime minister Phạm Minh Chinh. And just a fortnight ago, of course, Putin was exchanging warm words and firm handshakes with Donald Trump, who was hoping to lure him away from Beijing’s embrace. Not a bad haul for a leader whom Europe has shunned diplomatically since 2022.

Of course, it is not Putin but Xi who is the true star of the show, which began with a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin and will end with a vast military parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan. It is not just China’s vast military that will be on show but also Xi’s superpower ambitions – with leaders such as Putin, Modi and the rest lined up as prestige guests at the emperor’s court.

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The reality is that while India and China really are global economic superpowers, Putin is the literal and figurative pygmy at the table. After three years of war, Russia’s economy faces its second quarter of economic contraction in a row. While that’s not yet anything close to an economic crisis, it’s equally clear that the war, and the West’s economic sanctions, have made Russia a supplicant to both Delhi and Beijing, who, between them, hold the fate of Putin’s economy – and his war effort – in their hands.

Overall, though, the last few days have marked a symbolic turning point. China is cementing its leadership of the world’s most populous and fastest-growing group of countries. US tariff policies are undermining his economy in the short term, but Xi is playing the long game. “The US is helping China to increase its global influence,” argues Xinbo Wu, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University. “China may suffer because of the US tariffs, but politically, China is gaining more sympathy and more support from other countries, and not just in the global South.”

Unlike the height of communism, Russia no longer wields much economic heft, nor does it possess a global ideology to offer the world. But Putin does have cheap energy to hand out to his friends, and a nuclear arsenal at his disposal, and a veto on the United Nations’ Security Council to wield. On its own, the Kremlin leads no one and influences no nation greater than tiny Belarus. But Putin has found a new role as sidekick and useful vassal to a mighty and rising world power.